The evolving relationship between the United States (US) & Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) presents significant challenges for the regional strategy of Pakistan.
This proximity raises concerns about security, Indian influence in Afghanistan & economic instability in the region. Pakistan must critically reassess its Afghan policy to address these challenges effectively.
Historically, Pakistan has supported an Islamist regime in Afghanistan, believing it would safeguard its strategic interests. This approach, however, has had unintended consequences:
- Domestic Security Threats: The rise of terrorism in Pakistan, allegedly fueled by external actors utilizing Afghan soil, has exposed vulnerabilities in this policy.
- Public Narratives & Policy Shift: Decades of promoting the IEA as a potential ally have shaped public perceptions, complicating any pivot in Pakistan’s foreign policy.
![An Afghan security personnel stands guard at a fenced corridor of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border in Spin Boldak district, Kandahar province on December 3, 2023. [AFP/File]](https://pkafgyouthforum.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/GhAYudrWMAALPD5.webp)
Also See: Diplomatic Maneuvers of the IEA: Opportunities and Challenges for the Region
US-IEA Financial Ties & Regional Impacts
Western financial support to the IEA is reshaping the regional landscape:
Pakistan’s collaboration with China, particularly under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), is jeopardized by a Western-funded IEA that may prioritize ties with the US over regional players like China.
The re-emergence of Indian influence in Afghanistan undermines Pakistan’s strategic objectives, increasing regional insecurity.
![The CPEC project may be jeopardized by IEA affiliation [Getty Images]](https://pkafgyouthforum.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/GhAl8v6XkAMsDbO-1024x576.webp)
![An Afghan Taliban delegation in Moscow, Russia May 30, 2019 [Reuters]](https://pkafgyouthforum.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/GhAl8wZXgAAekIO.webp)
Call for Diplomatic Action
Pakistan must adopt a multi-pronged approach to address these challenges:
- Engagement with the West: Proactive diplomacy is needed to highlight the destabilizing effects of Western financial support to the IEA.
- Regional Collaboration: Strengthening alliances with China, Russia, and Central Asian states can help counterbalance the emerging US-India-Afghanistan nexus.
- Border Security and Counterterrorism: Enhanced border controls and intelligence-sharing mechanisms are essential to prevent the cross-border movement of militants.
![Washington: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari at the State Department on Monday. [AFP]](https://pkafgyouthforum.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/GhAnSc2WwAAWZWj-1024x576.webp)
![U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, right, meets with Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi on the sidelines of the 76th U.N. General Assembly in New York City, Sept. 23, 2021. [AP]](https://pkafgyouthforum.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/GhAnSjiWIAAXJZE-1024x669.webp)
Facts and Figures to Consider
- Pakistan has incurred over $150 billion in economic losses due to terrorism and insecurity since 9/11.
- With over 1.4 million registered Afghan refugees, Pakistan bears a disproportionate burden of regional instability.
- Pakistan’s trade with Afghanistan, which was $2.5 billion in 2011, has plummeted to less than $500 million, reflecting deteriorating bilateral relations.
![Afghan families arrive from Pakistan with their belongings to Spin Boldak border crossing, in Kandahar province. [UNHCR]](https://pkafgyouthforum.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/GhAo9e9WoAARz0A-1024x684.webp)
The US-IEA proximity poses complex challenges for Pakistan; therefore, it necessitates a strategic recalibration of its Afghan policy. Moreover, addressing domestic security threats, countering Indian influence, and fostering regional partnerships are essential to navigating this shifting geopolitical landscape effectively.
Through robust diplomacy and strategic foresight, Pakistan can safeguard its national interests while contributing to regional stability.
PAYF Insights are social media threads by various authors, reproduced here for wider consumption.
