Welcome to Pak Afghan Youth Forum

Pak Afghan
Youth Forum

Don't just dream it
Be the bridge. Build a better tomorrow

Trump 1.0 vs Trump 2.0 – What To Expect for Afghanistan and Pakistan

As Trump begins his second term, explore how U.S. policies under Trump 1.0 and 2.0 will shape the future of Afghanistan and Pakistan. [Image via Reuters]

As the political tides shift with Donald Trump’s return to the White House on January 20, 2025, the U.S. approach to Afghanistan and Pakistan is bound to undergo significant evolution under Trump 2.0.. Comparing Trump’s first term policies with what could be his future stance, we find a balance between his transactional foreign policy and an entrenched commitment to national interests aligned to his “America First” doctrine. But what lies ahead for the United States-Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship? Let’s break it down.

Trump 1.0: A Startling Pivot on Afghanistan and Pakistan

Trump’s first term, while dominated by his trademark “America First” rhetoric, brought with it a marked policy shift in South Asia. Initially, he campaigned on the promise of reducing U.S. military engagement abroad. His stance on Afghanistan during the 2016 election cycle was clear: America had been stuck in a quagmire for too long, and it was time to bring the troops home.

However, upon taking office, the reality of the situation set in. Trump’s August 2017 strategy pivoted from withdrawal to a conditions-based approach, which ultimately meant sending more troops and focusing on counterterrorism. He praised Pakistan’s role in combating terrorism but was vocal about his frustrations with its alleged harboring of terrorist groups, especially the Haqqani Network. Still, Trump chose to keep diplomatic channels open, understanding that Pakistan’s strategic position was critical to the U.S. peace talks with the Afghan Taliban.

Trump’s Afghanistan strategy culminated in the 2020 Doha Agreement, where the U.S. agreed to withdraw its forces, marking a critical pivot in his administration’s foreign policy. But as he left office, Trump was quick to criticize his successor, Joe Biden, for the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. In Trump’s view, a more strategic and controlled departure would have preserved U.S. interests in the region.

Trump 2.0: What Will Change for Afghanistan and Pakistan?

As Trump takes office again in 2025, his foreign policy could likely become more aggressive and strategic, particularly with respect to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Here’s what we might expect:

1. Aid with a String Attached

Trump’s first term witnessed significant cuts to foreign aid, with billions slashed from Pakistan and Afghanistan, particularly in the military sector. Expect Trump 2.0 to double down on this policy. U.S. taxpayer dollars, as Trump argued in his first term, should no longer fund the countries that do not respect American interests or reciprocate sufficiently for the support they received. The evolving situation in Afghanistan, where aid continues to flow to the Afghan Interim Government, will be a major point of contention.

Trump is likely to push for strict accountability, likely demanding that the AIG adhere to counter-terrorism measures in exchange for continued support. The financial aid might be conditioned not only on security cooperation but also on Afghanistan’s transparency in handling U.S. funds. As seen with Representative Tim Burchett’s legislative push in the lead-up to Trump’s inauguration, members of Congress are already uneasy about the billions flowing into a country where the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan reigns, and Trump’s rhetoric around holding Afghanistan accountable will resonate with voters back home.

2. Re-engagement with Pakistan—With Conditions

Pakistan remains a pivotal player in the Afghanistan equation. Under Trump 2.0, U.S. engagement with Islamabad may shift from a policy of hopeful partnership to one of conditional cooperation. Expect Trump to intensify the pressure on Pakistan to act decisively against terror groups operating along the porous Pak-Afghan border, ultimately driving a closer Pak-Afghan bilateral cooperation against terrorism or posing challenges for both countries. With Pakistan’s growing ties to China, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Trump is likely to demand that Islamabad not only cooperate in Afghanistan’s stabilization but also distance itself from Chinese influence.

3. The ‘Do More’ 2.0 Policy: Afghanistan in the Crosshairs

Trump’s rhetoric towards Pakistan, particularly his demand that it “do more” to combat terrorism, is something we can expect to evolve towards Afghanistan. Afghanistan may find itself in the crosshairs of Trump’s “Do More” policy, particularly in dealing with groups like Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) and al-Qaeda, that have made significant inroads in the region since the U.S. withdrawal. Trump’s second term may push for an Afghanistan that is more accountable in its counterterrorism efforts, particularly with the looming threat of these groups destabilizing the region further.

Also See: Trump’s America-First Mandate and Afghanistan’s Search for Stability

AIG’s Expanding Diplomatic Strides with China and Russia

The AIG’s diplomatic overtures to both China and Russia signal a significant shift in Afghanistan’s international alignment. The AIG has actively sought recognition and support from these two powers, largely due to their growing interest in Afghan resources and regional security. Russia has long been wary of the instability in Central Asia and has positioned itself as a potential counterbalance to U.S. and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) influence in the region.

Under Trump 2.0, the U.S. will likely find itself at odds with the growing diplomatic influence of China and Russia in Afghanistan. While Trump’s administration has historically been skeptical of foreign alliances, his second term could see increased pressure on both Russia and China to temper their involvement in Afghanistan, especially if their influence begins to undermine U.S. interests in the region. However, given Trump’s “America First” policy, he may opt for diplomatic engagement with China and Russia, seeking a strategic balance rather than outright confrontation.

4. A Bigger Role for Regional Allies

Trump’s foreign policy has always been skeptical of long-term military commitments. His preference for transactional relationships could see him leveraging other regional powers like the Gulf states, India, and even Russia, to share the responsibility of stabilizing Afghanistan. Whether through economic assistance, counterterrorism cooperation, or diplomatic pressure, these countries could play a larger role in Trump’s Afghanistan strategy than they did during his first term.

5. A Geopolitical Tug-of-War: U.S. vs China

Afghanistan, sitting at the crossroads of Central Asia, is also a key part of the global geopolitical struggle, particularly concerning China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The AIG, seeking international recognition and economic aid to stabilize its regime, has found a willing partner in China. Beijing has shown a growing willingness to engage diplomatically with the AIG, signaling its intent to establish long-term economic and security ties in Afghanistan. This has included investments in infrastructure, mining, and energy projects, as well as providing Afghanistan with diplomatic backing in global forums. Afghanistan’s embrace of China is also a part of its broader strategy to reduce reliance on the West and build ties with powerful neighbors like China and Russia.

This expanding relationship between the AIG and China is a significant concern for the U.S., which views China’s increasing influence in Afghanistan as a potential challenge to American interests in the region.

Trump 2.0 could intensify its efforts to limit Chinese influence in Afghanistan, pushing the AIG to ensure that its territory is not used to facilitate China’s ambitions in the region. The challenge will be balancing this pressure with the need for Pakistan’s cooperation, as Islamabad continues to deepen its ties with Beijing.

However, Trump’s tendency to prioritize trade and transactional diplomacy could lead to nuanced negotiations with China over its involvement in Afghanistan, seeking to prevent Beijing from consolidating a dominant position.

The Unpredictable Path Forward

Trump’s second term is bound to bring shifts in U.S. foreign policy, especially in Afghanistan and Pakistan. His administration’s approach will likely be a blend of harsh realism, accountability for foreign aid, and an assertive stance against terrorism—especially if it serves the U.S. interest. The “Do More” rhetoric could make a comeback, this time targeting Afghanistan in the fight against terrorism and extremism.

As the U.S. continues to recalibrate its strategy in the region, the central question remains: Will Trump’s policies be effective in stabilizing Afghanistan and addressing Pakistan’s complex role in this equation? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: Trump’s second term will not shy away from making bold, and perhaps controversial, decisions that will shape the future of U.S.-Pakistan-Afghanistan relations.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Scroll to Top