As Afghanistan passes the three-year mark under Taliban rule, the country is grappling with a mix of progress and setbacks. The reality is complex, with positive strides in some areas counterbalanced by significant challenges. Here’s a look at the good, the bad, and the ugly of the Taliban’s governance.
The Good
One of the most notable achievements under Taliban rule has been the downfall of corruption. The previous government was plagued by corruption, severely hampering its ability to function effectively. The Taliban’s strict enforcement of laws has led to a substantial reduction in corrupt practices. This has resulted in more efficient, albeit rigid, governance in some areas. Reports from multiple sources, including the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) and other international watchdogs, suggest a marked decline in corruption. However, transparency remains an issue.
The revival of tourism is another positive development. Afghanistan’s rich cultural heritage and natural beauty are once again drawing visitors, particularly from neighboring countries. This resurgence in tourism is providing a much-needed boost to the economy and helping to restore a sense of normalcy. According to Afghanistan’s Ministry of Information and Culture, there has been a steady increase in the number of tourists visiting historical sites. This increase has led to the re-establishment of small businesses in these areas.
On the diplomatic front, the Taliban have made significant strides with diplomatic engagement. They have notably established ambassadors in China and the UAE. These relationships are crucial for Afghanistan’s future, offering pathways for international cooperation and potential investments. Additionally, military attachés have been appointed to embassies in several countries, including Pakistan, Russia, and Iran. This appointment was confirmed by the Afghan Ministry of Foreign Affairs. So far, 14 countries have opened or maintained their embassies in Afghanistan. This information comes from the United Nations and various diplomatic sources. The Taliban have also been invited to participate in multiple multilateral platforms. These include the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and regional summits in Central Asia.
The Bad
Despite these successes, the country faces severe challenges. Economic turmoil continues to cast a shadow over daily life, with rising poverty levels and limited economic opportunities. The lack of international recognition has left Afghanistan isolated from global financial systems, exacerbating the economic crisis. The freeze of approximately $7 billion in assets by the United States has further strangled the economy. This has led to a sharp contraction in GDP by 20-30% between 2021 and 2023, according to the World Bank. Over 90% of the population now lives in poverty. Unemployment rates exceed 40%, as noted by reports from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
The Hurdles on the Path
Trade through Pakistan, a country with which the Taliban share the longest border, has also suffered. While the Taliban have maintained strong trade relations, issues such as border closures, delays, and security concerns have disrupted economic connectivity projects like the CASA-1000 electricity transmission project and the TAPI pipeline. According to the Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PAJCCI), bilateral trade has declined by nearly 50% since the Taliban took power.
The ban on girls’ education remains a deeply troubling aspect of Taliban rule. This policy has drawn widespread condemnation and is viewed as a significant violation of human rights. By denying education to half the population, the Taliban are not only infringing on basic rights but also stifling the country’s potential for future growth. Multiple reports, including those from the United Nations and Human Rights Watch, highlight the long-term damage this policy will have on Afghanistan’s development.
The shift in Afghanistan’s drug economy from opium to synthetic drugs like crystal meth introduces a new set of challenges. While the Taliban’s crackdown on opium production, which has led to a 95% reduction according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), is a step in the right direction, the rise of crystal meth production could lead to a new public health crisis, both within Afghanistan and beyond its borders.
The Ugly
On the security front, the situation is mixed. The Taliban have managed to reduce ISKP-related security issues, which is a significant achievement. However, the presence of TTP sanctuaries within Afghanistan poses a serious threat to regional stability, particularly straining relations with neighboring Pakistan. Reports from the U.S. State Department and the Pakistani government indicate that these sanctuaries have become a source of tension, with cross-border attacks becoming more frequent.
Humanitarian concerns remain pressing, despite ongoing humanitarian aid efforts. Millions of Afghans are still in dire need of assistance, particularly during harsh winter months, and the Taliban’s restrictive policies have complicated the international response. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), approximately 28 million people require humanitarian assistance, with 6 million on the brink of famine.
The Afghan immigrant issue continues to highlight the challenges faced by the population. Since the Taliban’s return to power, an estimated 2.6 million Afghans have fled the country, seeking refuge in neighboring countries and beyond. This mass exodus underscores the instability that persists under Taliban rule. Statistics from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) indicate that the majority of these refugees have settled in Pakistan and Iran, with many more attempting to reach Europe.
Development
In terms of development, projects like the Mes Aynak copper mine and the Qush Tepa canal offer potential economic benefits but come with their own set of challenges. The Mes Aynak project, for instance, faces significant security concerns, infrastructural challenges, and delays due to political instability. The success of these initiatives depends on sustained stability and international collaboration—conditions that are far from guaranteed. Reports from the Afghan Ministry of Mines and Petroleum and international observers like the World Bank highlight the difficulties in attracting foreign investment for these projects due to ongoing security concerns.
Also See: Legacy and Paradox: Contemporary Relevance of Two-Nation Theory
Conclusion
The Taliban’s three-year rule is a story of both progress and deep-seated challenges. While there have been notable improvements, particularly in reducing corruption and reviving tourism, the country is still grappling with significant issues like economic instability, the ban on girls’ education, and humanitarian concerns. As Afghanistan moves forward, it will be crucial for both the Taliban and the international community to address these challenges with care and collaboration to prevent the country from sliding back into deeper turmoil.
