Pakistan’s Counterterror Progress Amid Cross-Border Strains

Pakistan’s long and painful struggle against terrorism has entered a critical phase, marked by a significant shift in the security landscape. For the first time in 12 years, fatalities among militants have surpassed those of civilians and security personnel—a testament to the country’s intensified counterterrorism efforts. However, despite this progress, Pakistan remains a victim of externally fueled instability, particularly from India, which continues to undermine regional peace through covert operations and false narratives.

A Turning Point in Counterterrorism

The latest Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) report for Q1 2025 reveals a 13% decline in overall violence compared to the previous quarter. Yet, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan remain the epicenters of unrest, accounting for 98% of all fatalities. Pakistan recorded 897 deaths and 542 injuries from 354 violent incidents, including terrorist attacks and security operations.

The most striking development is the shift in casualty patterns: 55% of fatalities were outlaws (militants/insurgents), exceeding combined civilian and security forces losses. Outlaw deaths rose by 20%, while security personnel and civilians saw 13% and 50% fewer casualties, respectively. This indicates that Pakistan’s security forces are gaining the upper hand—yet the fight is far from over.

The Ramadan Surge and Persistent Threats

Despite the overall decline, Ramadan 2025 witnessed an alarming spike in violence, with 313 deaths and 217 injuries—the highest in a decade. The Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) reported 84 attacks during the holy month, up from just 26 in 2024. Groups like the TTP, IS-Khorasan, BLA, and Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army remain active, proving that militant networks persist despite military pressure.

While Pakistan’s counterterrorism operations have weakened these groups, the cross-border dimension of terrorism cannot be ignored. India’s intelligence agencies have long supported anti-Pakistan militants, using Afghan soil to destabilize Balochistan and KP. The arrest of Kulbhushan Jadhav, an Indian spy operating in Balochistan, exposed New Delhi’s covert war against Pakistan—yet India continues to evade accountability while falsely accusing Pakistan of terrorism.

India’s Destabilizing Role and Election-Time Aggression

India’s leadership has a well-documented history of manufacturing security crises before elections to divert attention from domestic failures. The 2016 Uri and 2019 Pulwama attacks were exploited to justify military aggression against Pakistan, including the illegal Balakot airstrike. Despite Pakistan’s restraint—downing Indian jets and returning the captured pilot—Modi’s government persists in war-mongering, using Pakistan as a scapegoat for political gains.

Afghanistan’s Role and Regional Stability

Pakistan’s sacrifices in the War on Terror extend beyond its borders. As a frontline state, it played a pivotal role in combating groups like Al-Qaeda and the TTP, even as instability in Afghanistan spilled over. Today, India exploits Afghan territory to fund and arm anti-Pakistan militants, undermining regional peace. A stable Afghanistan is crucial—but New Delhi’s interference continues to fuel violence.

Also See: What Happened in Pahalgam is Part of a Larger Story

Pakistan’s Right to Self-Defense and the Path Forward

Pakistan’s measured responses to Indian aggression—from Balakot to Pahalgam Attack—reflect its commitment to peace. However, under international law, it retains the right to defend itself. Any further Indian misadventure will be met with a swift, calibrated, and overwhelming response.

Pakistan’s counterterrorism gains are undeniable, but challenges remain. The international community must recognize India’s role in destabilizing the region and hold it accountable. Meanwhile, Pakistan must sustain its counterterrorism momentum, dismantle militant networks, and neutralize cross-border threats. The road to peace is fraught, but with resilience and strategic resolve, Pakistan can secure a stable future for itself and the region.